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Bowie State

CIAA Championship Game scenarios: Week Eight

With just three weeks remaining in the CIAA football race, the championship picture is getting clearer, but nothing is set in stone just yet.

We are at a point in the season where looking at the route to a CIAA football championship makes sense.  The CIAA relies on tiebreakers featuring head-to-head wins, followed by the in-conference record, and wins against common opponents.  Here is the route to a championship berth for each team in the conference.

CIAA North

Leader

Bowie State (6-1, 4-0): Win the next two games (Virginia Union this Saturday, Lincoln on 10/30) to represent the North Division.

Challenger

Virginia Union (4-3, 3-1): Needs to win out (Bowie State, Elizabeth City State, Virginia State). This scenario exists because Virginia Union lost to Shaw, so a third conference loss would nullify a potential tiebreaker win that VUU would own should they beat Bowie State on Saturday.

Needs Help
Chowan (5-2, 2-2): Needs to win the remaining regular-season games (Elizabeth City State, Virginia State, Lincoln) along with Bowie State losing all three regular-season games and Virginia Union defeating Bowie State and losing the other two regular season. This scenario exists because Chowan lost to Bowie State 14-3 in week six, and lost to Virginia Union 38-31 last Saturday.

Virginia State (2-4, 2-2): Needs to win the three remaining regular-season games (Lincoln, Chowan, and Virginia Union), along with Bowie State losing all three game remaining regular-season games.  This scenario exists because VSU lost to Bowie State 51-44 last Saturday and Fayetteville State 28-14 in week five. VSU winning all three gamed would enable them to hold the tiebreaker over Virginia Union.

Elizabeth City State (2-5, 2-2).  ECSU would need to win their remaining games (Virginia Union, Chowan, Bowie State), along with Bowie State losing to Virginia Union.  Additionally, Virginia Union would need to defeat VSU, since VSU owns the tiebreaker over ECSU.   This scenario would result in ECSU owning tiebreakers over BSU and VUU. Here’s a visual for this scenario:

ECSU: (5-2) (wins against VUU, Livingstone, WSSU, Bowie, Chowan)
Bowie State (5-2): (wins against Chowan, VSU, JCSU, Livingstone, Lincoln)
Virginia Union (5-2): (wins against JCSU, Lincoln, Chowan, Bowie, VSU)

Likely Eliminated
Lincoln (1-6, 1-3). There are too many teams ahead of them where the mathematical likelihood of winning the division is unlikely. 

CIAA South

Division Leader
Fayetteville State (5-1, 4-0): FSU’s grip on the division is tightening.  The Broncos can punch their ticket to the championship game by winning two out of the next three games (St. Augustine’s, Livingstone, and Winston-Salem State). FSU owns the tiebreaker over Shaw via the 15-12 win in Week Six.

Needs Help
Shaw (4-3, 3-1): Shaw needs to win all remaining regular season games, and for FSU to lose two games because of the aforementioned tiebreaker. 

Winston-Salem State (2-4, 2-2): WSSU needs to win all remaining games and for FSU to lose two game in order to win trigger the tiebreaker clause. 

Likely Eliminated
Livingstone (1-6, 1-3): Livingstone needs to win out, but would need Fayetteville State and Shaw the remainder of their games. This outcome is unlikely given those two teams’ remaining games.

Eliminated
The basement dwellers, St. Augustine’s (0-5, 0-4) and Johnson C. Smith (0-6, 0-4), have no chance of winning the division since there aren’t enough games left to make that outcome mathematically possible.

CIAA Championship Game scenarios: Week Eight
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