The NCAA Tournament is known for its thrilling matchups and upsets. On the opening day of the 2025 NCAA tournament, there’s already a potential first-round upset brewing between the No. 1 seed Auburn Tigers and the No. 16 seed Alabama State Hornets. The Hornets, representing HBCU basketball, have garnered significant attention recently with their historic win in the First Four round of the tournament on an incredible last-second shot. Despite Auburn’s favored status, the Hornets aim to defy the odds and etch their names into March Madness history with an upset. One that is still possible as the Hornets head into halftime down 41-31.?
Alabama State played Auburn close early in the first half before going down by as many as 13 points with eight minutes to play in the half. The Hornets would go on a run and found themselves down only three, 34-31, with just over a minute remaining until halftime. The upset alert was ringing loudly until Auburn closed out the half on a 7-0 run to give them a 10-point, 41-31 lead heading into halftime.
Alabama State came in as 32 points underdogs to Auburn, indicating that bookmakers expected a dominant performance from the Tigers. ?Can the HBCU hoops champion keep up the stellar play and pull off the historic upset?
Betting Odds Overview
- Point Spread: Auburn -32.5?
- Over/Under (Total Points): 149.5
- Moneyline: Auburn -8000; Alabama State +7000
These odds reflect Auburn’s strong season performance, boasting a 28-5 record and its status as a top seed. Conversely, Alabama State enters the tournament with a 20-15 record, having secured its spot by winning the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) championship.
Historical Context: 16 vs. 1 Seed Upsets
Historically, No. 1 seeds have dominated their first-round matchups against No. 16 seeds, holding a 154-2 record since the tournament expanded in 1985. However, there have been two monumental upsets.
- 2018: The University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) stunned the Virginia Cavaliers with a 74-54 victory, marking the first-ever instance of a 16 seed defeating a 1 seed. ?
- 2023: Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU) shocked Purdue with a 63-58 win, becoming the second 16 seed to achieve this feat. ?
These rare upsets serve as motivation for teams like Alabama State, illustrating that while improbable, defeating a top seed is possible.?
