The Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota has new projected favorites after a dramatic weekend of HBCU football, with South Carolina State and Alabama A&M replacing Morgan State and Jackson State atop the respective MEAC and SWAC championship projections.
The latest Toyota Championship Projection, released by ESPN Events on October 28, reflects results through October 24 and shows how quickly the road to Atlanta can change.
South Carolina State now has a 40.63 percent probability of representing the MEAC, while Alabama A&M leads the overall SWAC championship projection at 49.10 percent.
Both programs trailed different teams in the inaugural projections released one week earlier.
Morgan State loses MEAC lead after Howard upset
Morgan State entered MEAC competition as the overwhelming favorite, carrying a 63.4 percent chance of advancing to the Celebration Bowl.
But Howard’s stunning 26-20 overtime victory over the Bears transformed the conference race.
Morgan State’s probability has fallen to 25.40 percent, while Howard has climbed from 4.5 percent to 27.94 percent.
South Carolina State, meanwhile, improved its outlook considerably following a 22-7 victory over Norfolk State.
The Bulldogs entered last week with a 19.7 percent probability of advancing to Atlanta. Their chances have more than doubled.
North Carolina Central sits fourth at 4.10 percent, followed by Delaware State at 1.16 percent and Norfolk State at 0.77 percent.
South Carolina State, Howard and Morgan State now account for nearly 94 percent of the projected MEAC representatives.
The conference race could change again Thursday when South Carolina State travels to Morgan State for a nationally televised matchup.
Jackson State tumbles as Alabama A&M takes control
The SWAC championship picture has undergone an equally dramatic transformation.
Jackson State entered last weekend with a 40.3 percent probability of winning the conference championship.
Following a 24-21 loss to Bethune-Cookman, the Tigers’ chances have fallen to 8.07 percent.
Alabama A&M now leads the overall projection with a 49.10 percent chance of advancing to the Celebration Bowl.
The Bulldogs also have a 60.42 percent probability of winning the SWAC East Division.
Bethune-Cookman has emerged as the biggest challenger, increasing its overall championship probability from 6.0 percent to 17.86 percent.
Grambling State follows at 9.57 percent, while Prairie View A&M sits at 8.58 percent.
The Tigers lead the SWAC West Division projection at 36.69 percent, just ahead of Prairie View A&M at 32.90 percent.
Celebration Bowl director reacts to dramatic changes
John T. Grant, executive director of the Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota, believes the latest results demonstrate the value of the new projection system.
“Last weekend demonstrated why we introduced this projection,” Grant said. “A week ago, Morgan State and Jackson State held very different positions. Then Howard goes into Baltimore and upsets Morgan State in overtime, Bethune-Cookman defeats Jackson State in a thriller, South Carolina State wins, and suddenly the road to Atlanta looks different.”
The projection uses team strength, FCS-only scoring efficiency, conference standings, schedules and tiebreak rules to simulate the remainder of the season more than 10,000 times.
The resulting percentages represent how often each program advances to Atlanta.
Huge HBCU matchups loom
The updated Celebration Bowl projection adds intrigue to several upcoming conference games.
South Carolina State visits Morgan State on Thursday, October 29, at 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU, with the MEAC’s leading contenders meeting in Baltimore.
Alabama A&M will face Alabama State in the Magic City Classic on Saturday, October 31, at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Howard travels to North Carolina Central that same afternoon, while Bethune-Cookman faces Arkansas-Pine Bluff.
Each matchup could dramatically reshape the next set of projections.
The 2026 Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota is scheduled for December 12 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Kickoff is set for noon ET on ABC.