ATLANTA — The Cricket Celebration Bowl, presented by Toyota, has introduced a new tool to help HBCU football fans understand which programs have the best chance of reaching Atlanta this December.
The inaugural Toyota Championship Projection, released Wednesday, uses computer simulations to calculate each team’s probability of representing the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC) or Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) in the postseason showcase.
Morgan State enters the first projections as the overwhelming favorite in the MEAC, while Jackson State holds the edge in a competitive SWAC championship race.
Unlike traditional power rankings, the model factors in team strength, strength of schedule, scoring efficiency, conference standings, remaining opponents and game locations.
Morgan State emerges as MEAC favorite
Morgan State enters MEAC conference play with a 63.4 percent probability of advancing to the Cricket Celebration Bowl.
The Bears have established themselves as the clear statistical favorite, well ahead of South Carolina State, which ranks second at 19.7 percent.
Delaware State follows at 7.3 percent, while Howard and Norfolk State each sit at 4.5 percent. North Carolina Central rounds out the conference at 0.7 percent.
However, those projections could change quickly.
All six MEAC programs begin conference play this week, leaving just five league games to determine who earns the trip to Atlanta.
Morgan State hosts Howard in its conference opener, while South Carolina State welcomes Norfolk State. Delaware State also hosts North Carolina Central.
One upset could significantly alter the championship outlook.
Jackson State leads complicated SWAC picture
The SWAC championship race offers considerably more uncertainty.
Jackson State leads the East Division projection with a 49.5 percent chance of reaching the conference championship game.
Alabama A&M follows closely at 36.6 percent, while Bethune-Cookman sits third at 9.3 percent.
Jackson State also leads the overall SWAC championship projection at 40.3 percent, ahead of Alabama A&M at 29.9 percent.
Together, those two programs account for more than 70 percent of the projected SWAC championships.
However, Jackson State faces an important road test this weekend against Bethune-Cookman. The matchup carries the highest projected impact of any SWAC game this week. A Wildcats victory could dramatically tighten the division race.
Meanwhile, Grambling State leads the SWAC West at 41.6 percent, followed by Prairie View A&M at 26 percent.
Southern (12.3 percent), Alcorn State (10.1 percent) and Arkansas-Pine Bluff (10 percent) remain in contention.
Grambling State ranks third in the overall SWAC championship projection at 10.2 percent.
Florida A&M remains part of the simulations because its games influence conference standings and tiebreakers. However, the Rattlers are ineligible for postseason advancement.
Toyota adds analytics to the Celebration Bowl conversation
-The Toyota Championship Projection uses 10,000 computer simulations to forecast the remainder of the conference season.
Each simulation considers projected game outcomes, standings and applicable tiebreakers to determine which programs ultimately reach Atlanta.
John T. Grant, executive director of the Cricket Celebration Bowl, presented by Toyota, believes the model will add context to the championship conversation.
“The conversations around who is playing the best football, who has the toughest road and what the numbers are really telling us have been happening behind the scenes for years,” Grant said.
“This projection model tool helps bring those conversations to the public. The tool gives fans, media and the HBCU football community more context around the championship races, the teams’ paths and how the numbers are changing from week to week.”
Grant emphasized that the percentages are not guarantees.
“It does not replace what happens on the field, and it is not meant to tell us who will win.”
The projections will be updated weekly throughout the remaining conference schedules.
For now, Morgan State and Jackson State have the strongest statistical paths to the Cricket Celebration Bowl, presented by Toyota.
But the numbers only tell part of the story. The final answers will come on the football field.